World Conflicts Monitor

Full Analysis

The war in Ukraine has raged for over two and a half years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite Ukraine's determined resistance, Russia had steadily made gains, capturing the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in the Donbas region. However, in a surprise move, the Ukrainian military launched its own invasion of Russian territory in early August 2024.

In the months leading up to the attack, the Ukrainians quietly repositioned and built up forces in their northern Sumy province, taking advantage of relatively weaker Russian defenses along the border with Kursk province in Russia. On August 6th, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers backed by Western-supplied weapons crossed the border and rapidly advanced into Kursk, capturing over 1,000 square kilometers of territory and taking thousands of Russian prisoners in the first 10 days.

This marked the first time a nuclear-armed state like Russia had suffered a major hostile invasion of its sovereign territory since World War II. The scale and success of the Ukrainian assault was a shock, as Russia's vaunted military had struggled to contain the invasion despite suffering staggering casualties of over 1,000 soldiers per day on average.

Ukraine's objectives in launching this unprecedented attack into Russia appear multi-faceted. By seizing Russian territory, they gained potential leverage for future ceasefire negotiations, as they could offer to return the occupied Kursk area in exchange for Russia withdrawing from Ukrainian lands. The attack also boosted Ukrainian morale, which had been battered by setbacks like the failure of their 2023 counter-offensive.

Importantly, the invasion exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses, as its forces were stretched thin trying to make gains in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin faced difficult choices - divert resources to defend Kursk, risking further losses in Donetsk, or try to quickly expel the Ukrainians, potentially suffering embarrassing defeats.

Beyond the immediate military implications, Ukraine's attack into Russia upended diplomatic dynamics. It undermined ceasefire proposals from Russia and its ally Hungary, as freezing the front lines would now leave Ukrainian forces occupying Russian territory. The invasion also challenged Western perceptions of Russian "red lines" that could trigger escalation, potentially opening the door for Ukraine to receive more advanced weapons.

However, the gamble was not without risks for Ukraine. Reinforcing the Kursk front meant diverting experienced troops from the grinding battles in Donetsk, where Russia continued making slow but steady advances. If the Ukrainian assault in Kursk stalled or was pushed back, it could deal a devastating blow to morale. The outcome of this new front would be a crucial turning point in the broader Russo-Ukrainian War.