World Conflicts Monitor

Full Analysis

In May 2024, Georgia witnessed large-scale protests in Tbilisi following the passage of the Transparency of Foreign Influence Bill by the ruling Georgian Dream Party. The legislation requires NGOs and media organizations receiving over 20% of foreign funding to register in a public registry as foreign-influenced entities. The bill has drawn comparisons to Russia's 2012 foreign agent law due to similar provisions.

While the Georgian Dream Party maintains the law ensures funding transparency, opposition groups and critics express concerns about potential media suppression and civil society restrictions. The legislation's timing is significant, coming four months after Georgia received European Union candidacy status in December 2023. Both the EU and NATO have indicated that the law could affect Georgia's membership prospects, with EU officials stating it conflicts with their institutional values.

Georgia's relationship with Russia includes two military conflicts in recent decades, resulting in approximately 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory being under Russian military control. Current polling indicates that 80% of Georgians support EU membership, while 87% express solidarity with Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The bill's reintroduction in 2024 follows an earlier attempt in February 2023, which was withdrawn after public protests. The 2024 protests have been met with increased law enforcement measures, including water cannons, tear gas, and rubber bullets, as the government maintains its position on implementing the legislation despite domestic opposition and international concerns.

Georgia's recent political decisions have indicated shifting international alignments. Notable policy changes include non-participation in Russian sanctions following the Ukraine invasion, resumption of direct flights with Russia in 2023, and significant trade increases with Russia, marked by a 7% rise in exports and 79% rise in imports during 2022. The detention of former President Mikhail Saakashvili since 2021 has also drawn international attention. These developments have affected Georgia's international relations. Ukraine recalled its ambassador to Tbilisi in June 2022, later expelled Georgia's ambassador, and sanctioned Georgian Airways in 2023. Diplomatic tensions have emerged between Georgia and Western allies.

Georgia's strategic importance stems from its geographic position at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia. The country controls key routes through the Greater Caucasus mountains, including two coastal routes and two mountain passages: the Georgian Military Road and Roki Tunnel. The historical context includes Russian annexation in the early 19th century, brief independence from 1917-1921, and the Soviet period that established autonomous regions for Ossetian and Abkhaz minorities. Post-Soviet conflicts led to Russian-backed separatist regions, with 1990s conflicts resulting in significant demographic changes, particularly in Abkhazia. Georgia subsequently aligned with the West, contributing military forces to missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The region's significance extends to energy resources, with the Caspian Sea Basin containing approximately 3% of global oil reserves and 7% of world's natural gas reserves. Georgia's position makes it strategically important for energy transit routes. The Caspian Sea's energy infrastructure initially relied on Soviet-era pipelines through Russia. Western energy companies sought alternative routes to Europe, avoiding both Russia and Iran. Geographic constraints left two primary options: through Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey or Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey. Due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the northern route through Georgia was selected, resulting in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline's completion in 2005.

The 2008 geopolitical landscape shifted significantly following Kosovo's independence declaration and NATO's Bucharest summit, where Georgia received promises of future membership. This development raised strategic concerns for Russia regarding several key factors: control of Caucasus mountain passages, Black Sea access, proximity to Novorossiysk naval base, and energy transit routes. The August 2008 conflict began with hostilities between South Ossetian forces and the Georgian military. Russia launched a military intervention, resulting in approximately 200,000 displaced persons and significant casualties. The conflict concluded with Russia recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, establishing military bases in both regions, and effectively controlling 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory.

The strategic outcomes included Russian control of key geographic features: Extended Black Sea coastal access, Control of the Roki Tunnel, Proximity to the Georgian Military Road Pass, Position near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Military presence within 50 kilometers of Tbilisi. These developments altered regional power dynamics and impacted Georgia's Western integration prospects. Diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia remained severed following the conflict.

Post-2008 Political Shift: Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Russian-made billionaire worth approximately $6 billion (≈1/3 of Georgia's GDP), gained power through his Georgian Dream Party. Though officially leading for only one year (2012-2013), he maintained significant influence over Georgia's politics.

Strategic Energy Developments: The Southern Gas Corridor (2008-2020) required $45 billion investment, routing through Georgia. Azerbaijan pledged to double European gas exports by 2027, potentially providing 6-7% of EU gas consumption. This increased Georgia's strategic importance, contributing to its EU candidacy status in December 2023.

Port Development Competition: Russia's proposed naval base at Ochemchayr in Abkhazia competes with EU-backed plans for Georgia's first deepwater port at Anaklia. The Anaklia port would be crucial for the Middle Corridor trade route connecting China to Europe while bypassing Russia, Iran, and Armenia.

Current Tensions: The Georgian Dream's foreign influence law has sparked protests and Western criticism. The situation presents risks similar to Ukraine's 2014 Maidan revolution. Russia's potential intervention could: Disrupt Azerbaijan-Europe energy corridors, Create a land bridge to Armenia and Iran, Block the Middle Corridor trade route, Reinforce regional political control. This complex situation reflects Georgia's ongoing position between Eastern and Western spheres of influence, with significant implications for regional energy and trade routes.